財政潰堤下的中國骨架
「 後中共的中國 」究竟意味著什麼？最核心的定義是：當中共政權解體，其財政支付系統也隨之停擺。這聽起來似乎過於簡化，但深入探究便會發現，這抓住了問題的要害。
What does “Post-Communist China” truly mean? The fundamental definition is that when the Communist Party regime collapses, its financial payment system also ceases to function. While this may seem overly simplistic, a closer examination shows that it addresses the crux of the matter.
我們可以將中共這個政權，視為一個由「 骨架 」支撐起來的龐大集權機器。這個機器管理著廣袤的土地和龐大的人口。而維持這部機器運轉，從最上層的權力指令貫徹到底層的每個環節，都需要一個不可或缺的條件：金錢。錢，是機器的潤滑劑；沒錢，機器就會停擺。因此，財政收支能力，才是衡量這個政權是否可能解體的終極指標。
We can view the Chinese Communist Party regime as a vast centralized machine supported by a “skeleton.” This machine oversees extensive territories and a large population. To keep this machine functioning, from the highest levels of power directives down to every link at the grassroots level, one essential condition is required: money. Money acts as the lubricant for the machine; without it, the machine will grind to a halt. Thus, the ability to manage fiscal income and expenditure serves as the ultimate indicator of whether this regime could potentially disintegrate.
過去幾年，許多跡象顯示中共的財政體系正承受巨大壓力。根據來源資料提到的數字，中國的總債務佔 GDP 的比例從 2008 年的 140% 上升到 2021 年的 300%。這絕非一個健康的信號。地方政府和地方銀行面臨困境，甚至有資料提到部分省份、直轄市和自治區已難以維持收支平衡長達兩年。
In recent years, numerous signs have shown that the financial system of the Chinese Communist Party is under significant strain. According to figures cited in various sources, China’s total debt as a percentage of GDP has increased from 140% in 2008 to 300% in 2021. This is certainly not a healthy indicator. Local governments and banks are encountering challenges, and reports indicate that some provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have been unable to maintain a balanced budget for as long as two years.
更令人憂慮的是，地方政府和銀行勾結，挪用老百姓存款的現象也已發生。大型房地產企業的連鎖爆雷，也直接衝擊了地方財政賴以生存的「 土地財政 」基礎。當老百姓的存款都開始設限，無法自由取出，這是一個極其危險的信號。
Even more concerning is the collusion between local governments and banks, which has led to the misappropriation of citizens’ deposits. The chain reaction of large real estate companies going bankrupt has directly affected the “land finance” foundation that local governments depend on for survival. When citizens’ deposits begin to face restrictions and cannot be withdrawn freely, it signals a very serious danger.
這種財政困境，並非短期現象。它與中共高度集權的體制息息相關。這個體制依賴強大的財政能力來維持運轉，包括巨額的維穩費用，以及過去三十年來支撐其迅速擴張所需的金錢潤滑。一旦財政枯竭，這個龐大機器的各個部分——黨務、行政、企業生產、政治、軍隊——都將受到影響。
This financial crisis is not a short-term issue. It is closely tied to the highly centralized system of the Chinese Communist Party. This system depends on substantial financial resources to function, including massive costs for maintaining stability and the funds required to support its rapid expansion over the past thirty years. Once the financial resources are depleted, every component of this enormous machine—party operations, administration, corporate production, politics, and the military—will be impacted.
內部與外部的交織：加劇財政壓力
The interplay of internal and external factors: intensifying fiscal pressure
除了內部的結構性問題，外部環境的變化也在加劇中共的財政壓力。來源資料提到，俄羅斯 將成為拖垮中共財政的巨大負擔。俄烏戰爭 導致全球能源價格波動，中國作為能源進口大國，這也會帶來壓力。
Besides internal structural issues, changes in the external environment are intensifying the financial pressure on the Chinese Communist Party. Sources indicate that Russia is set to become a significant burden on the Party’s finances. The Russia-Ukraine war has caused fluctuations in global energy prices, and as a major energy-importing nation, China will also experience increased pressure.
與美國 的關係，無論是貿易戰 還是地緣政治競爭，都牽動著中國的經濟與財政。長期依賴 中東 的石油資源，使得中國在中東 的地緣政治變動面前顯得脆弱，而與 沙烏地阿拉伯 和 以色列 的關係，也可能影響其能源獲取和財政穩定。
The relationship with the United States, whether through trade wars or geopolitical competition, significantly influences China’s economy and finances. China’s long-term dependence on oil resources from the Middle East renders it vulnerable to geopolitical shifts in the region, and its ties with Saudi Arabia and Israel could also affect its energy procurement and financial stability.
國內的一些政策選擇，例如嚴苛的 清零政策，雖然在官方敘事中是為了人民健康，但在經濟和財政層面造成了巨大的代價，導致生產停擺、供應鏈斷裂。這些事件累積起來，都指向一個脆弱的財政基礎。
Some domestic policy decisions, like the strict zero-COVID policy, were officially justified as protecting public health, but they have imposed enormous economic and fiscal costs, causing production halts and supply chain breakdowns. Altogether, these events highlight a fragile financial base.
中共內部，不同群體、不同區域的利益衝突也在這個財政困境下顯得更加尖銳。例如，「 紅二代 」及其家族對體制的依賴和影響，地方與中央的關係，以及軍隊 (解放軍) 對資源的需求，都與財政息息相關。當資源不足時，這些內部矛盾可能會進一步激化。
Within the Chinese Communist Party, the conflicts of interest among various groups and regions have become more pronounced in this financial crisis. For instance, the dependence and influence of the “red second generation” and their families on the system, the relationship between local and central authorities, and the military’s (People’s Liberation Army) demand for resources are all closely tied to financial matters. When resources are scarce, these internal contradictions may escalate further.
台灣的「 預策 」：面對潛在變局
Taiwan’s “Pre-Planning”: Addressing Potential Changes
對於台灣而言，「 後中共的中國 」是一個無法迴避的議題。台灣在這種潛在變局中所應採取的「 預策 」。這不只是政治或經濟層面的準備，更包括心理和實體的防衛。
For Taiwan, “Post-Communist China” is an unavoidable issue. The preparations that Taiwan should undertake in light of this potential shift encompass not only political and economic aspects but also psychological and physical defenses.
台灣需要進入一種「 戰爭狀態 」的思維模式，這不是說立刻就要開戰，而是要有足夠的緊迫感和準備。其中，「 民防 」和「 全民國防教育 」被視為至關重要。這意味著社會整體需要具備應對危機的能力，而非僅僅依賴軍隊。
Taiwan needs to adopt a “wartime mindset,” not to suggest starting a war immediately, but to cultivate a strong sense of urgency and preparedness. In this context, “civil defense” and “national defense education for all citizens” are regarded as essential. This implies that society as a whole must be equipped to handle crises, rather than depending solely on the military.
台灣不能指望外部援助會無條件到來。在一個充滿不確定性的未來，台灣必須依靠自己，做好最壞的打算。這包括心理上的準備，認識到潛在變局帶來的衝擊，以及實際的民防訓練和物資儲備。
Taiwan cannot expect unconditional external assistance to arrive. In an uncertain future, Taiwan must rely on itself and prepare for the worst. This includes mental readiness, understanding the impacts of potential changes, as well as practical civil defense training and stockpiling resources.
結論：一個由財政決定的未來？
Conclusion: A future shaped by finance?
綜合這些觀察，我認為將中共政權的財政能力作為其「 生命體徵 」，並以此作為預測其解體可能性的主要依據，是來源資料提供的一個重要視角。當這個龐大的集權機器因為財政枯竭而難以為繼時，其「 骨架 」便面臨崩塌的風險。
Based on these observations, I believe that viewing the financial capacity of the Chinese Communist Party as its “vital signs” and using this as the primary basis for predicting the likelihood of its collapse offers an important perspective from the source material. When this enormous authoritarian machine becomes unable to sustain itself due to financial depletion, its “skeleton” is at risk of collapsing.
當然，未來的發展充滿未知數。但是，認識到財政在其中扮演的關鍵角色，理解其內部結構的脆弱性以及外部環境的壓力如何交織，對於我們判斷「 後中共的中國 」何時、如何到來，至關重要。對於全世界而言，這更是一個促使認真思考自身定位與準備的警鐘。在這個變局中，全世界能否安然度過，甚至抓住機遇，將取決於我們能否清醒地認識現實，並做好充分的準備。
Certainly, the future is filled with uncertainties. However, it is essential to recognize the critical role that finance plays, to understand the vulnerabilities within its structure, and to see how external pressures interact. This understanding is vital for assessing when and how “post-Communist China” will emerge. For the global community, this serves as a crucial reminder to reflect seriously on its own position and readiness. In this shifting landscape, whether the world can navigate through it safely, or even seize opportunities, will depend on our ability to recognize reality clearly and prepare adequately.