失速中國
多年來，我持續關注中國的發展。深入研究一些資料後，我不得不說，當前的中國，正顯露出「 失速 」的種種跡象。這不僅僅是經濟層面的減緩，而是在政治、社會、文化、對外關係等多個面向，都呈現出一種失去控制的態勢，而這一切，似乎都與過去十年間，中國最高領導人習近平所推進的近乎個人獨裁式的統治方式有關。
Over the years, I have closely followed China’s development. After in-depth research, I must say that China today is showing clear signs of “losing momentum.” This slowdown is not limited to the economy but extends to politics, society, culture, and foreign relations, all showing a loss of control. Much of this appears tied to the increasingly autocratic leadership style of Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, over the past decade.
習近平的集權是顯而易見的。他打破了過去幾十年來中共領導人退休制的慣例，取消了國家主席的任期限制，並將權力高度集中到自己手中。我觀察到，他偏好擔任小組組長，以及各種委員會主任，緊抓權力核心。這種「 大權獨攬 」、「 宛如「 無冕之皇 」再世 」的姿態，讓人想起過去的領導人，甚至有人將他與 毛澤東 相提並論。在提拔接班人方面，他的做法異於傳統，偏好不經預告的指定，這讓身邊的人都感到戰慄。
Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power is unmistakable. He broke the decades-long Communist Party tradition of leaders stepping down, abolished presidential term limits, and centralized authority firmly in his own hands. I have observed that he prefers to take roles such as group leader and chairman of various committees, firmly grasping the core of power. His approach of “monopolizing supreme power,” almost like a “reincarnated ‘uncrowned emperor’,” evokes memories of past leaders—and some even draw parallels between him and Mao Zedong. When it comes to promoting successors, his method breaks from tradition by favoring sudden, unannounced appointments, which instills fear among those close to him.
習近平的統治風格帶有強烈的個人色彩，甚至可見一種「 鳥托邦偏執症 」與「 英雄主義躁鬱症 」的傾向。他似乎極度不信任身邊的人，對待下屬如同防賊。這種性格特徵，結合其個人經歷中可能存在的「 失學症候群 」與「 口誤連連 」的問題，以及對「 清華博士 」學歷真實性的質疑，或許解釋了他為何對知識分子和專業人士缺乏信任，轉而依賴個人意志進行統治。這種基於個人偏執而非專業知識的治理方式，恰恰是當前中國失控的根源之一。
Xi Jinping’s leadership style is highly personal, exhibiting traits that could be described as “utopian paranoia” and “heroic manic behavior.” He appears to be deeply distrustful of those around him, treating his subordinates as if guarding against thieves. These personality traits, combined with possible issues from his past such as “academic dropout syndrome” and frequent verbal slips, along with skepticism about the authenticity of his “Tsinghua PhD,” may explain his lack of trust in intellectuals and professionals. Instead, he depends on his personal will to govern. This style of governance, driven by personal paranoia rather than expertise, is one of the core reasons behind China’s current loss of control.
在經濟方面，儘管過去取得了令人矚目的成就，但我看到資料顯示，中國經濟正遭遇寒冬。消費、投資、外貿這「 三駕馬車 」都面臨下行壓力。世界銀行、 IMF 和 Reuters 的預測都顯示，中國未來的經濟增長將顯著放緩。青年失業率高企，中小企業經營困難。此外，人口結構的快速老化和超低生育率，正帶來長期且嚴峻的挑戰。外資正在撤離或準備離開。這些都表明，中國經濟模式正遭遇嚴峻考驗，過去的高速增長已難以為繼。
In terms of the economy, although China has achieved remarkable successes in the past, data shows that the Chinese economy is currently facing a downturn. The “three driving forces” of consumption, investment, and foreign trade are all experiencing downward pressure. Forecasts from the World Bank, IMF, and Reuters indicate that China’s economic growth will slow significantly in the future. The youth unemployment rate is high, and small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling to survive. Additionally, the rapid aging of the population and extremely low birth rates are posing long-term and severe challenges. Foreign investment is withdrawing or preparing to exit. These factors suggest that China’s economic model is undergoing significant challenges, making it increasingly difficult to sustain the rapid growth of the past.
社會管控是習近平統治的另一個重要面向。我觀察到，中國正日益走向一個「 全景監控社會 」，利用數字技術對民眾進行全面監控。例如，「 全民健康碼 」系統，儘管表面上是出於公共衛生目的，但實際上已演變為對個人行動的嚴密監控工具。這種將個體視為「 生物權力 」 (Biopolitics) 管理對象的做法，剝奪了公民的基本自由和隱私。過去的「 清零政策 」儘管已結束，但其所暴露出的過度管控、不惜代價的執行方式，以及引發的社會反彈和經濟損失，都顯示了這種高度集權體制在面對危機時的脆弱性和不理性。
Social control is another significant aspect of Xi Jinping’s governance. I have noticed that China is increasingly becoming a “panoptic surveillance society,” employing digital technology to monitor the public comprehensively. For instance, the “Health Code” system, while ostensibly aimed at public health, has actually transformed into a stringent surveillance tool for tracking individual movements. This approach, which treats individuals as subjects of “biopower,” undermines citizens’ fundamental freedoms and privacy. Although the previous “zero-COVID policy” has concluded, the excessive control it revealed, the relentless enforcement methods, and the ensuing social backlash and economic losses all highlight the vulnerability and irrationality of this highly centralized regime when confronted with crises.
在對外關係上，中國推行的是一種強硬的「 戰狼外交 」。對於美國，我看到資料將當前的關係定義為「 新冷戰 」。雙方在貿易、科技、軍事、意識形態等多個領域展開全面對抗。美國正調整其國防戰略，將中國視為首要挑戰，並加強與盟友如日本、澳洲、英國等國的合作，例如通過 AUKUS 和 Quad 機制。這種對抗態勢使得全球地緣政治風險顯著上升。
In its foreign relations, China adopts a hardline approach known as “wolf warrior diplomacy.” Concerning the United States, current data describes the relationship as a “new cold war.” Both nations are engaged in a comprehensive confrontation across various areas, including trade, technology, military, and ideology. The United States is revising its defense strategy to regard China as its foremost challenge and is enhancing cooperation with allies such as Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom through initiatives like AUKUS and Quad. This confrontational stance has significantly heightened global geopolitical risks.
台灣問題是當前最敏感的燃點。我看到資料分析，習近平對台灣採取的是「 武統台灣 」的戰略。儘管官方聲稱爭取和平統一，但同時強調不放棄使用武力。解放軍在台灣周邊的軍事演習被視為一種實戰化準備和對台灣的威脅。中國將台灣海峽宣稱為「 國內水域 」，挑戰了國際法中的「 國際水域 」概念。國際社會，特別是美國及其盟友，對中國的軍事威脅表示嚴重關切，並採取行動支持台灣的自衛能力。這場博弈不僅關乎台灣的命運，也影響著整個印太地區的安全與穩定。
The Taiwan issue is currently the most sensitive flashpoint. Data analysis shows that Xi Jinping’s strategy towards Taiwan is one of “military unification.” While the official stance claims to seek peaceful unification, it also emphasizes that the use of force will not be ruled out. The military exercises conducted by the People’s Liberation Army around Taiwan are viewed as preparations for actual combat and pose a threat to Taiwan. China has declared the Taiwan Strait as “internal waters,” challenging the concept of “international waters” under international law. The international community, especially the United States and its allies, has expressed serious concerns about China’s military threats and has taken steps to support Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities. This situation not only impacts Taiwan’s future but also affects the security and stability of the entire Indo-Pacific region.
中國在國際場域中的一些說辭和行動，顯得十分矛盾。例如，中國宣稱自己是民主國家，但其體制與普世民主價值存在根本差異。對待香港，中國單方面撕毀了 中英聯合聲明，無視「 一國兩制 」的承諾，強行改變了香港的地位和制度。這些都嚴重損害了中國的國際信譽。
China’s statements and actions in the international arena often seem highly contradictory. For instance, while China claims to be a democratic country, its system fundamentally diverges from universal democratic values. In relation to Hong Kong, China unilaterally violated the Sino-British Joint Declaration, ignoring its commitment to “one country, two systems,” and forcibly altered Hong Kong’s status and governance. These actions have significantly harmed China’s international reputation.
從社會文化角度看，我注意到資料中探討了中國社會中存在的「 民族智能的退化 」現象。這似乎是指一種在高度管控和單一意識形態下，民族整體創新和獨立思考能力的下降。對教育的嚴格控制，對西方思想和文化的排斥，都在加劇這種趨勢。例如，對英語教育的限制，對西方文化的貶低，以及近年來網絡上出現的「 瞇瞇眼 」事件所折射出的文化不自信和排外情緒，都讓我深感憂慮。
From a socio-cultural perspective, I noticed that the data addresses the phenomenon of “the degradation of national intelligence” in Chinese society. This appears to refer to a decline in the nation’s overall capacity for innovation and independent thinking under a highly controlled environment and a singular ideology. Strict regulation of education and the rejection of Western thoughts and culture are intensifying this trend. For instance, limitations on English education, the disparagement of Western culture, and the recent online incident involving “squinting eyes,” which highlights cultural insecurity and xenophobic sentiments, all cause me great concern.
總體而言，在習近平領導下，正多面向地失去控制的中國。集權的加劇並未帶來更穩定的治理，反而導致內部矛盾激化、經濟活力下降、社會自由萎縮、對外關係緊張。這種「 失速 」不僅對中國自身構成巨大風險，也為全球帶來了不確定性和挑戰。在這樣一個關鍵時刻，理解中國的內部動力和外部行為模式，比以往任何時候都更加重要。
Overall, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China is increasingly losing control in various aspects. The intensification of centralization has not resulted in more stable governance; rather, it has exacerbated internal conflicts, diminished economic vitality, curtailed social freedoms, and strained foreign relations. This “loss of control” poses significant risks not only to China itself but also introduces uncertainty and challenges to the global community. In this crucial moment, understanding China’s internal dynamics and external behavior patterns is more important than ever.