美中博奕下，面對中國的挑戰，危機重重

讀過一些關於美中潛在衝突的討論，我深感這不僅是一些對地緣政治緊張局勢的分析，更是一份迫使我們正視「既有的強權，應該如何對面崛起中的強權？」這一修昔底德式（ Thucydides ）困境的警示錄。現在的核心關切——中美衝突似乎難以避免，尤其是在區域熱點如台灣、朝鮮半島、東海、南海以及中印邊境等問題上——卻是當前國際關係中一個無法迴避的嚴肅議題。

After reading various discussions about the potential conflict between the U.S. and China, I realize that this is not merely an analysis of geopolitical tensions; it serves as a warning that compels us to confront the Thucydides trap of “how should established powers respond to the rise of new powers?” The primary concern today—the U.S.-China conflict—appears increasingly unavoidable, particularly in relation to regional hotspots like Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the China-India border. This issue remains a serious and unavoidable topic in contemporary international relations.

對於中美貿易，其對美國是「損己利人」，加劇了衝突可能性。美國工廠關閉、失業人數增加以及對中國的巨額債務等數字雖然存在爭議，且未考慮到生產自動化和中國低成本製造對美國消費者的益處，但反映了「另類右派」在審視中美關係時的一個重要視角：將經濟關係視為衝突的潛在來源，而非緩衝劑。約翰．米爾斯海默（ John Mearsheimer ）教授也指出，今天中國令人恐懼的原因在於其龐大的人口和日益增長的財富，而減緩中國經濟成長可能是阻止其軍事擴張和成為亞洲霸權的一個策略。

In terms of Sino-American trade, it is seen as “self-harming and beneficial to others” for the United States, increasing the likelihood of conflict. While there are debates over the figures related to factory closures, rising unemployment, and the substantial debt owed to China, and the advantages of production automation and China’s low-cost manufacturing for American consumers are often overlooked, this reflects a significant viewpoint of the “alternative right” when analyzing Sino-American relations: perceiving economic ties as a potential source of conflict rather than a buffer. Professor John Mearsheimer has also noted that the current fear surrounding China stems from its vast population and increasing wealth, and that slowing China’s economic growth could be a strategy to curb its military expansion and prevent it from becoming a hegemon in Asia.

中國在軍事實力上的快速增長，這不僅限於傳統武器，還包括「非動能」的「心理戰」、「媒體戰」和「法律戰」，即「三戰」。這顯示中國正用軍事實力打造一種「朝貢體系」，並運用海權論（ Sea Power Theory ）尋求突破第一島鏈（ First Island Chain ），將東海、南海和西太平洋視為其勢力範圍，甚至期望將美國海軍逐出亞太地區。中國的軍事現代化和戰略意圖，被描述為「危險且越來越現代化的侵略性軍力」，並逐漸具備全球布局的能力。特別是中國海軍的發展，如 094 型晉級彈道飛彈潛艇，具備向美國本土發射核彈頭的能力，這給美國帶來了實際的威脅。

China’s rapid growth in military power extends beyond conventional weapons to include “non-kinetic” forms of warfare such as “psychological warfare,” “media warfare,” and “legal warfare,” collectively referred to as the “three wars.” This indicates that China is leveraging its military strength to establish a “tribute system” and is utilizing Sea Power Theory to seek breakthroughs beyond the First Island Chain, regarding the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Western Pacific as its sphere of influence, with aspirations to expel the U.S. Navy from the Asia-Pacific region. China’s military modernization and strategic objectives are characterized as “dangerous and increasingly modernized aggressive military capabilities,” and it is progressively developing the ability for global deployment. Notably, the advancement of the Chinese Navy, exemplified by the Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarine, which can launch nuclear warheads at the U.S. mainland, presents a tangible threat to the United States.

台灣問題有著極高的戰略重要性。它被稱為「永不沉沒的航空母艦」（ Unsunk Aircraft Carrier ），位於第一島鏈的關鍵位置。中國視台灣為「核心利益」，其回歸統一是一個不可動搖的信念，甚至可能為此與美國一戰。中國對台灣的渴望基於民族主義、地緣政治和意識形態等多重因素。台灣的民主自由體制被認為對北京當局構成挑戰和恐懼。美國是否會軍事保護台灣，以及對台軍售，都是導致中美關係緊張的關鍵點。查爾斯．葛拉瑟（ Charles Glaser ）提出的「大交易」（ Grand Bargain ）構想，即美國放棄對台灣的支持以換取中國在東海、南海問題上的讓步，受到了卜睿哲（ Richard Bush ）等專家的強烈反駁，認為這絕對行不通，且中國不會為了這種交易而違背自身國家利益。

The Taiwan issue holds immense strategic significance. Often referred to as the “Unsunk Aircraft Carrier,” Taiwan occupies a crucial position along the First Island Chain. China considers Taiwan a “core interest,” with its reunification viewed as an unshakable commitment—so much so that China might even risk a conflict with the United States over it. China’s pursuit of Taiwan is driven by a combination of nationalism, geopolitics, and ideology. Taiwan’s democratic and free system presents a challenge and source of concern for the Beijing leadership. Key points contributing to Sino-American tensions include whether the U.S. will offer military protection to Taiwan and arms sales to the island. Charles Glaser’s “Grand Bargain” proposal—where the U.S. would relinquish support for Taiwan in exchange for Chinese concessions in the East and South China Seas—has been firmly rejected by experts like Richard Bush, who argue it is entirely unfeasible and that China would not sacrifice its national interests for such a deal.

還有，朝鮮半島問題作為潛在熱點。中國與北韓的緊密關係，特別是歷史上的軍事羈絆，使得中國難以對北韓採取嚴厲態度。如果北韓政權垮台或發動核攻擊，都可能將中美捲入衝突。

Additionally, the situation on the Korean Peninsula poses a potential hotspot. China’s close ties with North Korea, particularly their historical military connections, make it challenging for China to take a hard line against North Korea. Should the North Korean regime collapse or initiate a nuclear attack, it could pull both China and the United States into conflict.

南海問題同樣是衝突的核心。中國的「九段線」（ Nine-Dash Line ）主張涵蓋了南海絕大部分，並通過「剝白菜戰略」（ Cabbage Strategy ）和「臘腸術」（ Salami Slicing ）等手法擴張影響力，與菲律賓、越南等國在主權和資源問題上產生激烈衝突。中國在南海的行為被視為一種修正主義式的法律規則扭曲，試圖將南海變成「中國湖泊」，並限制航行自由，這與國際法相悖，也受到美國的反對。

The South China Sea issue is also central to the conflict. China’s “Nine-Dash Line” claims encompass most of the South China Sea and extend its influence through tactics like the “Cabbage Strategy” and “Salami Slicing,” resulting in fierce disputes with countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam over sovereignty and resource rights. China’s behavior in the South China Sea is viewed as a revisionist distortion of legal norms, aiming to transform the South China Sea into a “Chinese lake” and limit freedom of navigation, which is contrary to international law and opposed by the United States.

中印邊境爭端也是一個被提及的區域熱點。中國在西藏和新疆的軍事建設以及對印度水源的控制，構成了對印度的潛在威脅。中國與巴基斯坦的緊密關係及其對巴基斯坦的軍事援助，也令印度感到緊張。西藏問題和印度對達賴喇嘛的支持，也是中印之間的摩擦點。

The Sino-Indian border dispute is a noted regional hotspot. China’s military developments in Tibet and Xinjiang, along with its control over water sources in India, present a potential threat to India. Additionally, China’s close ties with Pakistan and its military assistance to Pakistan create further tension for India. The issue of Tibet and India’s support for the Dalai Lama also serve as points of friction between China and India.

面對這些潛在衝突，資料中探討了美國的幾種戰略應對方式。一種是「海空整體戰」（ AirSea Battle ），主張在美國基地和船艦遭到攻擊時，對中國本土進行反擊。這種策略的支持者認為，不反擊中國本土會鼓勵其攻擊。然而，反對者如阿米塔．伊茲奧尼（ Amitai Etzioni ）教授認為，這可能迅速升級為核子戰爭。

In light of these potential conflicts, the data examines several strategic responses from the United States. One such strategy is the “AirSea Battle,” which advocates for retaliating against mainland China when U.S. bases and ships come under attack. Proponents of this strategy argue that failing to retaliate would encourage further aggression from China. Conversely, critics like Professor Amitai Etzioni contend that this approach could rapidly escalate into nuclear war.

另一種策略是「近海控制」（ Offshore Control ），也被稱為「海上戰爭」（ Maritime Warfare ），主張將第一島鏈變成中國船隻的「禁區」，並通過遠端封鎖扼阻中國的全球貿易路線，以經濟絞殺來迫使中國讓步。這種策略的批評者認為，漫長的經濟戰爭會對雙方及盟友經濟造成巨大傷害，且中國不太可能屈服。同時，這種「等待遊戲」可能給中國致命一擊的機會。

Another strategy is “Offshore Control,” also referred to as “Maritime Warfare,” which proposes transforming the first island chain into a “no-go zone” for Chinese vessels and obstructing China’s global trade routes through remote blockades, thereby economically strangling China to force concessions. Critics of this strategy contend that a prolonged economic war would inflict severe damage on both sides and their allies’ economies, and that China is unlikely to capitulate. Additionally, this “waiting game” could give China the opportunity to strike a decisive blow.

關於分散（ Disperse ）和重整（ Recapitalize ）軍力等策略。在日本琉球群島分散軍力，使中國難以瞄準。而以攻擊型潛艇為基礎，打造海底「反制長城」，利用美國在潛艇戰方面的優勢，被認為是有效對抗中國「區域阻絕」（ Anti-Access/Area Denial, A2/AD ）策略的方式。然而，潛艇無法像航空母艦攻擊群那樣直觀地展現美國的武力存在和對盟友的承諾，這是一個缺點。

This involves strategies such as dispersing (Disperse) and recapitalizing (Recapitalize) military forces. By dispersing military assets in the Ryukyu Islands of Japan, it becomes challenging for China to target them. Developing an underwater “countermeasure Great Wall” based on attack submarines, leveraging the United States’ strengths in submarine warfare, is seen as an effective method to counter China’s “Anti-Access/Area Denial” (A2/AD) strategy. However, submarines do not provide the same clear demonstration of U.S. military presence and commitment to allies as an aircraft carrier strike group does, which is a disadvantage.

整體而言，當前的亞太局勢充滿變數，美中之間因各自的國家利益、地緣政治考量以及國內因素（如中國的民族主義和專制體制尋求鞏固權力、美國的政治極化和潛在的新孤立主義）而面臨嚴峻挑戰。經濟相互依賴是否能有效阻止衝突，在專家之間也存在不同看法。雖然有些歷史案例顯示，即使經濟關係緊密，戰爭依然可能發生，但也有觀點認為，經濟相互依賴提高了戰爭的成本，對雙方都構成嚇阻。

Overall, the current situation in the Asia-Pacific is highly variable, and the U.S.-China relationship is facing significant challenges due to their respective national interests, geopolitical considerations, and domestic factors (such as China’s nationalism and authoritarian regime seeking to consolidate power, as well as America’s political polarization and the potential rise of new isolationism). Experts have differing opinions on whether economic interdependence can effectively prevent conflict. While some historical examples indicate that wars can still happen even with strong economic ties, others argue that economic interdependence increases the costs of war, serving as a deterrent for both parties.

這種結論似乎傾向於現實主義觀點，即「力量」是國際關係中的關鍵因素。然而，簡單地認為「力量能阻擋侵略」是過度簡化的，因為國家加強防衛可能被誤解為侵略，從而引發軍備競賽和安全困境。最終，維護和平需要提升綜合國力（包括經濟、教育、科技等），並在國內取得政治共識。中國的威權體制及其對媒體和訊息的控制，使得外部世界難以精準掌握其意圖，也加劇了誤判的風險。美國應對中國挑戰，不僅是軍事和經濟層面，也需要在國內進行改革，並與盟友緊密合作，因為「團結則存，分裂則亡」。

This conclusion appears to align with the realist view that “power” is a crucial factor in international relations. However, simply assuming that “power can prevent aggression” is too simplistic, since a country strengthening its defenses might be perceived as aggressive, sparking arms races and security dilemmas. Ultimately, maintaining peace requires building comprehensive national strength—including economic, educational, and technological capacities—and securing political consensus at home. China’s authoritarian system and its control over the media and information make it difficult for the outside world to accurately understand its intentions, heightening the risk of miscalculation. In responding to China’s challenge, the United States must focus not only on military and economic measures but also on domestic reforms and close cooperation with allies, because “unity ensures survival, division leads to demise.”

我的看法是，現在確實處在一個複雜且充滿潛在危機的地緣政治圖景。無論最終是否走向衝突，理解雙方的戰略思維、核心利益以及潛在的誤判風險，對於台灣以及所有相關方來說，都至關重要。

I believe we are currently in a complex geopolitical landscape that is fraught with potential crises. Whether or not a conflict ultimately occurs, it is essential for Taiwan and all stakeholders to understand the strategic thinking, core interests, and risks of misjudgment on both sides.