迫在眉睫的挑戰：為何台灣的防禦刻不容緩？

最近，我深入研究了一本引人深思的書：《沸騰的護城河：保衛台灣的緊急措施》（The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan）。這本書匯集了多位專家的觀點，如 H.R. Mc Master 所說，它「精確地闡述了我們如何嚇阻中國獨裁者正在策劃的災難性戰爭」。這本書讓我深刻認識到，我們正處於一個地緣政治板塊劇烈變動的時代，而最嚴峻的威脅正指向台灣。

Recently, I explored a thought-provoking book titled “The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan.” This book compiles insights from various experts, including H.R. McMaster, who noted that it “accurately outlines how we can deter the catastrophic war being plotted by the Chinese dictator.” This book has made me acutely aware that we are living in a time of significant geopolitical upheaval, with the gravest threat aimed at Taiwan.

中國（中華人民共和國， PRC）正以驚人的速度擴張軍力。這不僅僅是為了鞏固其作為全球超級大國的崛起，而是有著更具體的目標：透過軍事入侵、封鎖或兩者結合，以武力實現北京領導人所謂的「台灣與祖國統一」。習近平，這位被形容為「擴張狂的獨裁者」（megalomaniacal dictator），正不斷告誡黨內幹部與全國人民「準備戰爭」，而且特別是為了這場將他置於毛澤東之上的「加冕勝利」。

China (People’s Republic of China, PRC) is rapidly expanding its military capabilities. This effort is not just to solidify its status as a global superpower but also has more specific objectives: to achieve what Beijing’s leaders refer to as “the unification of Taiwan and the motherland” through military invasion, blockade, or a combination of both. Xi Jinping, often described as a “megalomaniacal dictator,” continually urges party officials and the nation to “prepare for war,” particularly for this “crowned victory” that would elevate him above Mao Zedong.

這不再是維持現狀的問題了。正如美國國務卿 Antony Blinken 所承認的，北京已經做出了「根本性的決定，即現狀不再可接受，北京決心以更快的時間表追求統一」。習近平一系列的公開講話，包括他呼籲準備經歷「重大考驗的暴風雨大海」（the stormy seas of a major test），以及在不同場合強調「祖國完全統一」是「中華民族偉大復興的必然要求」和他復興運動的「精髓」，這些都不是對西方的宣傳，而是對中國共產黨（CCP）的權威指示。我們應該像對待洩漏的白宮戰爭與和平談話一樣嚴肅看待這些訊息。

This is no longer just about maintaining the status quo. As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged, Beijing has made a “fundamental decision that the status quo is no longer acceptable, and it is determined to pursue unification on a faster timetable.” Xi Jinping’s series of public statements, including his call to prepare for the “stormy seas of a major test,” and his repeated emphasis that “the complete unification of the motherland” is “an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and the “essence” of his rejuvenation movement, are not merely propaganda directed at the West; they are authoritative directives to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). We should regard these messages with the same seriousness as we would leaked discussions from the White House about war and peace.

如果台灣被併吞，其影響將是深遠的。首先，這將終結一個由主要為華人社會進行的「受歡迎的多黨制自治實驗」（experiment with popular, multiparty self-government by a predominantly ethnic Chinese society），對中國大陸及其他地區的民主前景將是壞消息。

If Taiwan is annexed, the consequences will be profound. Firstly, it will bring an end to an experiment in popular, multiparty self-government led primarily by an ethnic Chinese society—bad news for the future of democracy in mainland China and beyond.

其次，台灣的地理位置極其重要。正如 General Douglas MacArthur 在 1950 年所警告的，落入共產黨手中的台灣可以被比作一艘「不沉的航空母艦和潛艇補給艦」（unsinkable aircraft carrier and submarine tender），位置極佳，既能支援蘇聯的攻勢戰略，又能牽制美國在 Okinawa 和 Philippines 的反攻行動。歷史上，日本帝國就曾利用台灣作為「軍事侵略的跳板」，共產黨軍隊也可能做同樣的事。

Secondly, Taiwan’s geographical location is critically important. As General Douglas MacArthur warned in 1950, if Taiwan were to fall into the hands of the Communist Party, it could be compared to an “unsinkable aircraft carrier and submarine tender.” Its strategic position would enable it to support Soviet offensive strategies while simultaneously restraining the United States’ counteroffensive efforts in Okinawa and the Philippines. Historically, the Japanese Empire used Taiwan as a “springboard for military aggression,” and the Communist forces could potentially do the same.

再者，台灣在全球經濟中扮演著關鍵角色。特別是其半導體製造業，台灣掌握了全球近一半的晶圓代工產能。失去台灣可能對全球經濟造成災難性影響。

Moreover, Taiwan plays a crucial role in the global economy. Its semiconductor manufacturing sector, in particular, accounts for almost half of the world’s wafer foundry capacity. The loss of Taiwan could have devastating consequences for the global economy.

如果台灣淪陷，北京將在區域內取得霸權，並可能尋求全球霸權。歷史告訴我們，復仇主義強權的胃口不會太小。中國已經在南中國海挑戰多國主張，並持續挑戰日本對釣魚臺的管轄權。令人擔憂的是，中國的地圖和官方宣傳甚至質疑日本對 琉球群島鏈（包括冲縄）主權的合法性。中國官員的言論和國家檔案館的展示，都強化了這種對琉球群島的歷史主張。北京在過去十年中在南中國海的佔領和軍事化行為，以及對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的堅定支持，加速了「反專制網絡」（counter-authoritarian networks）的發展，這讓中國領導層感到不安，加劇了他們對被包圍和國際孤立的擔憂。

If Taiwan were to fall, Beijing would establish hegemony in the region and might pursue global dominance. History shows us that the appetite of vengeful powers is insatiable. China has already challenged the claims of multiple countries in the South China Sea and continues to contest Japan’s jurisdiction over the Diaoyu Islands. Alarmingly, China’s maps and official propaganda even question Japan’s sovereignty over the Ryukyu Islands chain (including Okinawa). Statements from Chinese officials and exhibits in national archives bolster this historical claim over the Ryukyu Islands. Over the past decade, Beijing’s actions of occupation and militarization in the South China Sea, along with its unwavering support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have accelerated the emergence of “counter-authoritarian networks,” causing unease among Chinese leaders and heightening their fears of being encircled and internationally isolated.

面對這種威脅，台灣自身的努力至關重要。台灣需要建立「一種新的軍事文化」（A New Military Culture）。台灣國防部（MND）內部對改革存在顯著的阻力，這並非台灣獨有，軍事官僚機構向來以抗拒變革著稱。然而，任何有意義的國防改革都必須處理這種根深蒂固的官僚利益和體制文化。自 2014 年以來，烏克蘭就必須「清理」（clean house）自己的軍隊隊伍，這或許能給我們啟示。

In light of this threat, Taiwan’s own efforts are essential. Taiwan needs to cultivate “a new military culture.” The Ministry of National Defense (MND) in Taiwan encounters considerable resistance to reform, a challenge not unique to Taiwan, as military bureaucracies are often known for their resistance to change. Nonetheless, any significant defense reform must tackle these deep-rooted bureaucratic interests and institutional cultures. Since 2014, Ukraine has had to “clean house” within its military, which may offer us valuable lessons.

為了有效應對威脅，台灣需要聚焦於幾個方面：獲取最新的工具來「阻止網路入侵和反擊錯誤與虛假訊息」；調整處理 中國空域和海域入侵的方式；獲取「持續的情資、監控和偵察（ISR）能力」；以及提升在持續封鎖下「溝通和應變的能力」。這不僅僅是軍事裝備的問題，更是全社會防禦的體系。

To effectively address threats, Taiwan must concentrate on several key areas: acquiring the latest tools to “prevent cyber intrusions and counter misinformation and disinformation”; adjusting its approach to dealing with incursions in Chinese airspace and maritime areas; securing “continuous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities”; and improving “communication and response capabilities” during prolonged blockades. This issue extends beyond military equipment; it encompasses a comprehensive defense system for society as a whole.

中國可能的行動，包括兩面手法：秦剛大使曾言，促進「和平統一」與「不放棄使用武力」就像「同一枚硬幣的兩面」（like two sides of the same coin）。除了直接入侵的「動能」（kinetic）手段，中國還會運用「灰色地帶」（gray-zone）活動來「引誘、恐嚇和征服台灣」（seducing, intimidating, and subjugating Taiwan）。這包括資訊戰、經濟利誘與脅迫、以及長時間的海空封鎖。

China’s possible actions involve a two-pronged approach: Ambassador Qin Gang described promoting “peaceful reunification” and “not renouncing the use of force” as “two sides of the same coin.” Beyond direct kinetic invasion, China also uses “gray-zone” tactics to lure, intimidate, and subdue Taiwan. These tactics include information warfare, economic incentives and coercion, as well as prolonged maritime and aerial blockades.

關於全面的軍事衝突，模擬演習的結果令人警醒。CSIS 的台灣戰爭推演顯示，解放軍的導彈襲擊將對嘗試從第二島鏈向西行動的美軍及盟軍造成「嚴重」（severe）的損失，可能導致兩艘美國航空母艦打擊群被摧毀，數百架飛機在基地被毀，以及超過一萬名美軍人員傷亡。解放軍擁有龐大的導彈庫和先進的偵察衛星網絡，能夠持續、全天候地觀測盟軍單位。

Concerning a potential comprehensive military conflict, the results of simulation exercises are concerning. The CSIS Taiwan war games suggest that missile strikes from the People’s Liberation Army could inflict “severe” losses on U.S. and allied forces attempting to move westward from the second island chain. This may result in the destruction of two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups, the loss of hundreds of aircraft at their bases, and over ten thousand U.S. military personnel casualties. The People’s Liberation Army has a large missile stockpile and an advanced reconnaissance satellite network capable of continuously and round-the-clock monitoring of allied units.

除了直接入侵，解放軍對台灣的封鎖（blockade）也是一個嚴峻的選項。解放軍對台灣的封鎖將會很難反制，因為這強調了中國的「主場優勢」（home court advantages）。中國領導人可能會將封鎖包裝為「合法行使主權」（legitimate exercise of sovereignty），聲稱台灣是中國領土，中國有權對其領土實施管制。這種「海關和法規檢查檢疫」（customs and regulatory inspection quarantine）可能逐步升級為全面的圍困，包括切斷食物和燃料供應。

Besides direct invasion, a blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army is also a serious option. Such a blockade would be challenging to counter, as it highlights China’s “home court advantages.” Chinese leaders might present the blockade as a “legitimate exercise of sovereignty,” asserting that Taiwan is part of China and that China has the right to exert control over its territory. This “customs and regulatory inspection quarantine” could gradually escalate into a complete siege, potentially cutting off food and fuel supplies.

要有效嚇阻衝突，需要 臺灣、美國 及其盟友共同努力。日本扮演著「關鍵投票」（Swing Vote）的角色，其行動將可能決定戰事的勝敗。澳大利亞（Australia）的 AUKUS 夥伴關係和其作為指挥中心的角色，也加強了對北京的「透過偵測嚇阻」（deterrence by detection）。歐洲（Europe）雖然地理遙遠，但其在烏克蘭戰爭中吸取的教訓表明，面對獨裁者，「只有軍事和經濟嚇阻有效，而不是外交咖啡聊天」（only military and economic deterrence have an impact, not diplomatic coffee chats）。歐洲對烏克蘭的支持 證明了當民主世界團結一致時，仍然是一支強大的力量。面對日益 aggressive 的中國，我們需要類似的統一方法。

To effectively deter conflict, Taiwan, the United States, and their allies must collaborate. Japan serves as a “swing vote,” and its actions could significantly influence the outcome of the conflict. Australia’s AUKUS partnership and its role as a command center further strengthen deterrence through detection against Beijing. While Europe may be geographically distant, the lessons learned from the Ukraine war demonstrate that when confronting dictators, “only military and economic deterrence are effective, not diplomatic coffee chats.” Europe’s support for Ukraine illustrates that when the democratic world stands united, it remains a formidable force. In light of China’s increasing aggression, we need a similarly unified approach.

總之，《沸騰的護城河》這本書傳達的信息清晰而緊迫。它呼籲所有關切台海衝突的人們「閱讀這本書，並要求身處領導地位的人士以緊迫感聽取其建議」。正如書名所示，圍繞台灣的「護城河」正在「沸騰」，我們必須採取緊急措施，以強大的嚇阻力來防止最壞情況的發生。

In summary, “The Boiling Moat” delivers a clear and urgent message. It urges everyone worried about the conflict in the Taiwan Strait to “read this book and demand that leaders pay urgent attention to its recommendations.” As the title implies, the “moat” surrounding Taiwan is “boiling,” and we must take immediate action to prevent the worst outcomes through strong deterrence.