劍指台灣？中國軍事準備的驚人真相與世界的責任
當我看完這個影片，瞭解到中國人民解放軍近年來的訓練模式和基礎建設時，心頭總會湧現一股寒意。特別是從衛星圖像和官方釋出的訓練片段中，能看到北京正在以驚人的速度進行一場目標明確的軍事現代化。其目的，在我看來，是為了有朝一日能夠「解決」台灣問題，甚至不惜動用武力。這不僅僅是猜測，而是有實際證據支撐的準備工作。
After watching this video and understanding the training patterns and infrastructure of the People’s Liberation Army of China in recent years, a sense of chill always rises in my heart. Especially from satellite images and official released training clips, it can be seen that Beijing is proceeding at an astonishing speed with a clear goal of military modernization. Its purpose, in my view, is to ‘resolve’ the Taiwan issue one day, even at the cost of using force. This is not just speculation, but a preparatory work supported by actual evidence.
北京的理想情境，當然是能夠不費一兵一卒就達到其目的。他們正投入龐大的資源，試圖透過大規模軍事演習來恐嚇台灣。光是 2023 年，中國就在太平洋區域，特別是台灣周邊，花費超過 150 億美元進行大型演習。這項恐嚇策略本身就佔了其國防預算的 7%。此外，解放軍建立了一個龐大的宣傳機器，擁有自己的報紙、數十個社交媒體帳號甚至電視頻道，不斷播放士兵進行登陸演習或試射洲際導彈的「史詩級」畫面。這些固然是力量展示，但更深入的分析卻能揭示其具體的作戰計劃。
Beijing’s ideal scenario is, of course, to achieve its objectives without deploying a single soldier. They are pouring vast resources into intimidating Taiwan through large-scale military exercises. In 2023 alone, China spent over $15 billion on major drills in the Pacific region, especially around Taiwan. This intimidation strategy constitutes 7% of its defense budget. Furthermore, the People’s Liberation Army has created an extensive propaganda apparatus, complete with its own newspapers, dozens of social media accounts, and even television channels, constantly airing “epic” footage of soldiers conducting landing drills or testing intercontinental missiles. While these are indeed displays of power, a more in-depth analysis can uncover their specific operational plans.
這些計劃的驚人之處在於，解放軍不僅僅是「演練」入侵，他們正在「建造」台灣。在中國廣闊的沙漠中，衛星圖像揭示了多個令人難以置信的訓練場地。這些場所複製了台灣及其盟友的關鍵設施和基礎建設。例如，在新疆塔克拉瑪干沙漠的邊緣，出現了一個形狀和尺寸與美國 福特 級航空母艦完全相同的瀝青結構。在其他偏遠地區，也發現了類似的美國航空母艦複製品。這些結構大多是在過去十年內建造的，其目的顯然是為了讓解放軍訓練如何瞄準和攻擊這些目標。雖然美國航母在海上高速移動，這些固定目標的訓練可能不夠現實，但中國也建造了可以在軌道上移動的航母複製品來進行模擬打擊演習。不僅是美國航母，在距離 260 公里的地方，解放軍也建造了日本偵察機的複製品，用來測試飛行員和導彈的準確性。他們甚至發布過模擬打擊關島美軍基地的影片，公開展示其針對美國的肌肉。
What’s astonishing about these plans is that the PLA isn’t just “practicing” an invasion—they are actually “constructing” a model of Taiwan. Satellite images from China’s vast deserts have uncovered several unbelievable training grounds. These sites replicate critical facilities and infrastructure of Taiwan and its allies. For instance, at the edge of the Taklamakan Desert in Xinjiang, there’s an asphalt structure identical in shape and size to a US Ford-class aircraft carrier. Similar replicas of US aircraft carriers have been found in other remote areas as well. Most of these structures were built within the last decade, clearly intended to allow the PLA to train for targeting and attacking such sites. While US carriers move swiftly at sea, training on these stationary targets may lack realism, so China has also built aircraft carrier replicas capable of moving on tracks for simulated strike drills. It’s not just US carriers: about 260 kilometers away, the PLA has built replicas of Japanese reconnaissance planes to test the accuracy of pilots and missiles. They have even released videos simulating strikes on the US military base in Guam, openly showing their might against the United States.
然而，最令人震驚的，是中國對台灣本身基礎設施的精確複製。早在 2015 年 7 月初，解放軍就在其最大的朱日和訓練基地進行了一場大規模實戰演練。官方目標是盡快擊殺敵方指揮官以贏得勝利。儘管官方並未指名敵人，但從演習畫面和衛星圖像中清晰可見，訓練場地內有一棟大型建築，其尺寸、比例和建築風格幾乎完全等同於位於台北市中心的台灣總統府。在其下方，還有與台灣外交部及前台灣宮殿（現為國家接待廳）相似的建築。這個建於 2014 年的訓練區持續擴建，並且定期進行演習。更甚者，在 2021 年，中國在距離朱日和 700 公里的地方，又建造了另一個幾乎完全複製台灣政治核心區域的訓練場，連周圍主要道路的佈局也幾乎一模一樣。
However, the most shocking aspect is China’s precise replication of Taiwan’s infrastructure. As early as July 2015, the People’s Liberation Army conducted a large-scale live-fire exercise at its largest training base in Zhurihe. The official objective was to swiftly eliminate the enemy commander to secure victory. Although the enemy was not explicitly named, it is evident from the exercise footage and satellite images that there is a large building in the training area, whose size, proportions, and architectural style closely resemble the Presidential Office located in downtown Taipei. Beneath it, there are also structures similar to Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the former Taiwan Palace (now the National Reception Hall). This training area, established in 2014, continues to expand and regularly hosts exercises. Furthermore, in 2021, China constructed another training ground nearly 700 kilometers from Zhurihe, which almost entirely replicates Taiwan’s political core area, with the layout of the surrounding main roads being nearly identical.
除了政治中心，解放軍也複製了台灣的軍事設施。在沙漠中央，他們描繪出了台中機場的輪廓。台灣在這裡部署了戰鬥機和軍事直升機。這個自 1999 年起就存在的場地，從圖像上看經常遭受模擬轟炸，留下了可能來自訓練中的中國戰鬥機造成的彈坑。中國在最西邊還建造了兩座結構和船艦模型，其形狀和佈局據專家分析，是以台灣東海岸的一座海軍基地為藍本。
Besides the political center, the People’s Liberation Army has also recreated Taiwan’s military facilities. In the heart of the desert, they have outlined the shape of Taichung Airport. Taiwan has stationed fighter jets and military helicopters at this location. This site, which has been in existence since 1999, frequently shows signs of simulated bombings, leaving craters likely caused by training Chinese fighter jets. Additionally, China has constructed two structures and ship models at its westernmost point, which experts suggest are modeled after a naval base on Taiwan’s east coast.
當然，單靠這些精確打擊是不夠的。一旦部隊成功登陸，他們將必須在台灣高度密集的城市環境中推進。為了讓部隊熟悉這種作戰環境，北京大規模增加了城市區域的訓練。他們甚至建造了台灣居民區的複製品。有些訓練場景中，士兵身後的商店招牌清晰可見，寫有「莒光」、「跆拳道館」以及台灣一家連鎖超市的前五個字。這些店面幾乎完美複製了台灣街頭相對而立的真實店鋪。台灣建築物的配置模式在其他中國訓練營地中也受到研究。甚至在 2024 年 9 月的一部軍事宣傳片中，首次展示了軍官們在一個大型數位平台上進行戰略演練。儘管畫面模糊，但放大後的片段顯示了街道名稱、體育場和許多建築物，這些都與台灣一個特定區域——距離台灣最大機場僅 5 公里處的蘆竹區——完全吻合。
Of course, relying solely on these precise strikes is insufficient. Once the troops successfully land, they will need to advance through Taiwan’s densely populated urban environment. To prepare the troops for this combat setting, Beijing has significantly increased urban training. They have even constructed replicas of Taiwanese residential neighborhoods. In some training scenarios, store signs are clearly visible behind the soldiers, featuring names like “Juguang,” “Taekwondo Gym,” and the first five characters of a Taiwanese supermarket chain. These storefronts almost perfectly mimic the real shops that stand side by side on the streets of Taiwan. The layout of Taiwanese buildings has also been studied at other Chinese training camps. In a military propaganda video released in September 2024, officers were shown conducting strategic exercises on a large digital platform for the first time. Although the footage was blurry, the zoomed-in segments revealed street names, stadiums, and numerous buildings that perfectly matched a specific area in Taiwan—Luzhu District, located just 5 kilometers from Taiwan’s largest airport.
解放軍深知，對台灣的軍事行動既有風險，又極其複雜。他們研究了諾曼底登陸和許多海戰案例，並為此開發了自己的兩棲攻擊艦和運輸艦。在台灣附近的演習具有雙重目的：一是嚇阻台灣的反抗，更重要的是，訓練能夠整合海岸警衛隊、海軍、空軍等各軍種的現實作戰能力。為了確保勝利，中國甚至會動員大量民用船隻來運送士兵。然而，這並不保證奇襲效果，因為台灣適合登陸的海灘數量不多，而且防守嚴密。
The PLA fully recognizes that a military operation against Taiwan carries significant risks and is highly complex. They have studied the Normandy landings and numerous naval battles, leading them to develop their own amphibious assault and transport ships. Exercises conducted near Taiwan serve two purposes: to deter Taiwanese resistance and, more critically, to train realistic combat operations that integrate multiple branches such as the Coast Guard, Navy, and Air Force. To secure victory, China might even mobilize a large fleet of civilian vessels to transport troops. However, this does not guarantee a successful surprise attack, as Taiwan has few suitable landing beaches and maintains strong defenses.
北京也清楚，要「贏得」台灣，必須考慮到另一個潛在的、更強大的敵人：美國。許多專家認為，美國放棄台灣，將意味著台灣在大約兩個月的戰鬥後不可避免地失敗。因此，中國的政策很大程度上取決於它對美國行動的判斷。台灣的平衡很大程度上建立在美國可能介入的信念上。
Beijing is also aware that in order to ‘win’ Taiwan, it must consider another potential, more powerful enemy: the United States. Many experts believe that if the United States abandons Taiwan, it will mean that Taiwan will inevitably lose after about two months of fighting. Therefore, China’s policy largely depends on its judgment of the United States’ actions. Taiwan’s balance largely rests on the belief that the United States may intervene.
地面作戰只是北京考慮的其中一種情境。除了軍事手段，他們可能也試圖通過政治手段來達成目的。例如，有分析認為，中國正試圖影響台灣 2028 年的總統大選，以尋找談判的管道，以便在不冒巨大軍事風險的情況下實現其目標。
Ground operations are merely one of the scenarios that Beijing is considering. Besides military options, they may also seek to achieve their goals through political means. For instance, some analyses indicate that China is attempting to influence Taiwan’s presidential election in 2028 in order to establish negotiation channels that would allow them to realize their objectives without incurring substantial military risks.
然而，從上述種種跡象來看，軍事選項是他們認真準備並不斷完善的劇本。這些詳細而逼真的訓練場景，以及不斷進化的訓練模式，都顯示出中國正在系統性地提高其武力犯台的能力。這不是遙遠的幻想，而是正在進行的準備。儘管有人認為，烏克蘭戰爭的進程已經證明，即使遭受殘酷的攻擊，抵抗和韌性是可能的，這讓「閃電戰」的可能性受到質疑，但大規模入侵的情境似乎正成為更被嚴肅考慮的選項。
However, judging from these various signs, the military option is a scenario they are seriously preparing for and continuously refining. The detailed and realistic training exercises, along with ever-evolving training methods, indicate that China is systematically improving its ability to use force against Taiwan. This is not a remote fantasy but active preparation. While some argue that the outcome of the Ukraine war has shown that even under severe attacks, resistance and resilience are possible—casting doubt on the likelihood of a “blitzkrieg”—the prospect of a large-scale invasion appears to be increasingly taken seriously.
面對這樣一個具體、有針對性的軍事威脅，全世界，特別是民主國家，不能再抱持僥倖心理或只是口頭上的關注。中國如此詳盡地複製台灣和盟友的設施，並模擬攻擊，其意圖已是昭然若揭。這不僅僅是台灣兩千三百萬人民的安危，更是印太地區乃至全球和平與穩定的關鍵。正如來源揭示的，中國的每一個軍事動作和戰略部署，都在向世界傳達一個信息。世界必須讀懂這個信息，並團結起來，共同提升嚇阻力量。支持台灣自我防衛的能力，強化區域安全合作，向北京明確表達任何單方面改變台海現狀的企圖都將付出不可承受的代價——這是我從這些資料中讀到的緊迫呼喚，也是全世界此刻應當共同承擔的責任。我們必須做好準備，聯合一切可以聯合的力量，阻止這場可能的悲劇。
In the face of such a specific and targeted military threat, the entire world, especially democratic nations, can no longer afford to rely on luck or merely express verbal concern. China has meticulously replicated the facilities of Taiwan and its allies and simulated attacks, making its intentions glaringly clear. This issue extends beyond the safety of Taiwan’s 23 million people; it is vital for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. As the sources indicate, every military action and strategic deployment by China sends a message to the world. The world must comprehend this message and come together to strengthen deterrence capabilities. Supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, enhancing regional security cooperation, and clearly communicating to Beijing that any unilateral attempt to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait will come at an unbearable cost—this is the urgent call I gleaned from these materials and the responsibility that the global community must collectively shoulder at this moment. We must be ready to unite all possible forces to avert this potential tragedy.