台海有事,全球有事:民主陣營的關鍵時刻

最近,國際局勢變幻莫測,我在關注新聞時,心頭總有一份沉重。特別是關於台海的討論,在我看來,早已不是地區問題,而是關係到整個世界秩序的重大考驗。過去人們常說「台灣有事就是日本有事」,但現在,北約秘書長 呂特的話更讓我警醒,他說:「台海如果一旦有事,就是北約有事。」這句話,我想,是我們每一個關心國際時事的人都必須認真思考的。

Recently, the international situation has been volatile, and as I follow the news, a heavy feeling often settles in my heart. Discussions about the Taiwan Strait, in particular, are no longer merely a regional issue, but a major test for the entire world order. People used to say, “Taiwan’s emergency means Japan’s emergency,” but now, NATO Secretary General Rutte’s words warn me even more: he said, “If there’s an emergency in the Taiwan Strait, it’s an emergency for NATO.” I believe this statement is something that every person who cares about international affairs must seriously consider.

為什麼呂特會這樣說?我認為,他看清了中俄聯動威脅的本質。如果北京決定對台灣動武,習近平很可能會事先與「莫斯科的小兄弟普京」通話,要求俄羅斯在歐洲製造動亂,以此牽制美國和西方國家的注意力,讓他們無法集中精力在亞洲戰場。這種「聯合做戰的模式未來可能發生,所以我們不能太天真」。這就意味著,烏克蘭戰場與台海情勢是聯動的,西方國家可能面臨「兩面作戰」的巨大壓力。

Why would Rutte say this? I believe he clearly sees the essence of the China-Russia linked threat. If Beijing decides to use force against Taiwan, Xi Jinping would likely first communicate with “Moscow’s little brother, Putin,” asking Russia to create disturbances in Europe to tie up the attention of the United States and Western nations, preventing them from focusing on the Asian battlefield. This “joint operation model may occur in the future, so we cannot be naive.” This means that the Ukraine battlefield and the Taiwan Strait situation are linked, and Western nations could face immense pressure from a “two-front war.”

在我看來,阻止中共攻打台灣,其實就是避免第三次世界大戰爆發的首要條件。歷史告訴我們,如果侵略者不受制裁,只會鼓勵更多國家破壞國際秩序,最終導致全球衝突。 呂特暗示,如果中共攻台,北約「可能要介入的」,這正是我最擔心,也最希望避免的局面。因此,我們必須強化遏阻能力,讓俄羅斯不敢對歐洲冒犯,讓中共不敢輕舉妄動。

In my opinion, preventing a CCP attack on Taiwan is actually the primary condition for avoiding the outbreak of World War III. History tells us that if aggressors go unpunished, it only encourages more countries to disrupt the international order, ultimately leading to global conflict. Secretary General Rutte hinted that if the CCP attacks Taiwan, NATO “might have to intervene,” which is the scenario I worry about most and hope to avoid. Therefore, we must strengthen our deterrence capabilities, so that Russia dares not act recklessly in Europe, and the CCP dares not make any rash moves.

為了達到這種遏阻效果,北約成員國都同意了一項「變革性」的決定:到 2035 年前,將國防支出提高到 GDP 的 5%。其中 3.5% 用於核心國防,另外 1.5% 則用於資訊安全、社會防禦和軍工產業發展。這是一個龐大的數字,但正如呂特所言:「如果不這麼做,我們就得學俄文了。」這話雖然帶著嘲諷,卻也透露著無奈和決心。當然,這也得益於美國總統川普的「推動」,他說服了歐洲盟友承擔更多責任,讓美國能夠更自由地「轉向亞洲」。

To achieve this deterrent effect, NATO member states have agreed to a “transformational” decision: to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Of this, 3.5% will be for core defense, and the remaining 1.5% for information security, societal defense, and military industry development. This is a huge sum, but as Secretary General Rutte said, “If we don’t do this, we’ll have to learn Russian.” While his words carried sarcasm, they also revealed a sense of helplessness and determination. Of course, this also benefited from the “push” by U.S. President Trump, who persuaded European allies to bear more responsibility, allowing the United States to more freely “pivot to Asia.”

而美國,最近也在積極敦促其在印太地區的重要盟友,例如日本和澳洲,明確表態:如果中美因台灣問題發生戰爭,他們將扮演什麼角色。國防部政策副部長柯爾比不斷推動這個議題,旨在「恢復威懾,通過實力實現和平」。雖然這項要求讓日本和澳洲感到意外和不滿,畢竟美國自身對台灣也沒有「空頭支票式的擔保」,但我認為,這正是美國在確保盟友「盡一份力」,共同應對中國日益增長的威脅。

And the United States, recently, has been actively urging its key allies in the Indo-Pacific, such as Japan and Australia, to clearly state what role they would play if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan. Under-secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, has been consistently pushing this issue, aiming to “restore deterrence and achieve peace through strength.” Although this request caught Japan and Australia by surprise and dissatisfaction, as the U.S. itself does not provide “blank check guarantees” to Taiwan, I believe this is precisely the U.S.’s effort to ensure its allies “do their part” in collectively responding to China’s growing threat.

許多人討論的「亞洲版北約」,我認為,雖然正式的「亞洲版北約」短期內可能難以實現,但以美國為中心的網狀同盟已在逐漸成形。像美日同盟、美韓同盟、AUKUS(澳英美同盟)以及四方安全對話(Quad),這些雙邊和多邊合作正在編織成一張區域安全網,對中國形成遏阻效果。這張網的形成,特別是當 AUKUS 與美日韓同盟能夠有效連結時,其勢力範圍將涵蓋南海中部以北至台灣海峽北部以南,將台灣和南海北部都納入防禦範圍。這就是我看見的「不需印太版北約,但效果已產生」的現實。

Regarding the “Asian NATO” that many people discuss, I believe that while a formal “Asian NATO” may be difficult to achieve in the short term, a network of alliances centered around the U.S. is gradually taking shape. Alliances such as the U.S.-Japan Alliance, the U.S.-South Korea Alliance, AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-United States security pact), and the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) are weaving a regional security net that forms a deterrent against China. The formation of this net, especially when AUKUS and the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance can effectively connect, will cover an area from the central South China Sea northward to the northern Taiwan Strait southward, bringing both Taiwan and the northern South China Sea within its defense perimeter. This, in my view, is the reality of “no need for an Indo-Pacific NATO, but the effect has already been produced.”

總而言之,台海問題已不再是區域性的爭端,而是與全球穩定息息相關。我深信,在當前國際秩序面臨崩壞風險的時刻,民主國家必須團結一致,共同承擔責任。我們不能再對侵略者的挑釁視而不見,否則,將會有更多國家打破規則,最終引發一場我們誰都無法承受的全球性衝突。守護台灣,不僅是守護一個 民主的成就,更是守護我們共同賴以生存的國際秩序。

In conclusion, the Taiwan Strait issue is no longer a regional dispute; it is closely intertwined with global stability. I firmly believe that at a time when the international order faces the risk of collapse, democratic nations must unite and collectively bear responsibility. We can no longer turn a blind eye to the aggressor’s provocations; otherwise, more countries will break the rules, ultimately triggering a global conflict that none of us can bear. Protecting Taiwan is not just about protecting a democratic achievement; it is also about protecting the international order on which we all depend for our survival.