台灣「大罷免」之後，中共的虎視眈眈

最近台灣的「大罷免」議題在輿論場上沸沸揚揚，牽動著許多人的心弦。不過，這也讓我思考，當我們關注台灣內部政治的同時，更不能忘記外部環境正變得日益險峻，尤其是中共對台灣的野心，恐怕正不斷升級。

After the recent “Great Recall” issue in Taiwan, which has stirred up much public discussion and concern. However, this also prompts me to reflect that while we focus on Taiwan’s internal politics, we must not overlook the increasingly perilous external environment, especially the escalating ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) towards Taiwan.

中共一直都把台灣視為其「領土」，從未放棄「武力統一」的選項。我看到，北大西洋公約組織（NATO）的秘書長 馬克·呂特（Mark Rutte）明確指出，中國軍隊的快速擴張，已經讓 北約 和印太地區的夥伴，比如日本和韓國，都感到高度警惕。根據 《電訊報》 在 2025 年 6 月 24 日的報導，馬克·呂特 形容中國的軍事建設是「巨大的」，海軍、空軍和導彈能力都在顯著增強，目的就是為了對台灣宣示主權。甚至有報告說，中國的國防預算在 2025 年官方增長了 7.2%，但這很可能只是冰山一角，實際支出恐怕更高，這就更讓人擔憂他們的真實意圖了。美國國防部長 皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）早在 2025 年 5 月就警告，中國對台灣的軍事攻擊「可能迫在眉睫」。美軍印太司令部司令 塞繆爾·帕帕羅（Samuel Paparo）上將也在 4 月提到，解放軍正在「舒展筋骨」，以達到習近平在 2027 年實現武力奪取台灣的軍事準備目標。

The CCP has always regarded Taiwan as its “territory” and has never ruled out the option of “unification by force”. I have observed that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte explicitly stated that China’s rapid military expansion has highly alarmed NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners, such as Japan and South Korea. According to The Telegraph on 24 June 2025, Rutte described China’s military buildup as “massive,” noting its growing naval, air, and missile capabilities designed to assert dominance over Taiwan. There are even reports that China’s official defense budget increased by 7.2% in 2025, but this is likely an understatement of actual spending, further fueling concerns about their true intentions. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned as early as May 2025 that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan “could be imminent”. Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, also mentioned in April that the Chinese military is “stretching their legs” to meet Xi Jinping’s 2027 military readiness goal of being capable of taking Taiwan by force.

最讓我擔憂的是，俄羅斯可能在這場潛在的衝突中扮演支持角色。馬克·呂特 曾發出嚴厲警告，一旦中國入侵台灣，可能會讓俄羅斯「拖住歐洲」，這無疑會讓北約東翼的緊張局勢升級。這兩個國家之間的「無上限夥伴關係」，在經濟和國防合作上不斷深化，甚至有 X 平台上的用戶透露，有 600 名中國士兵在俄羅斯基地進行訓練，這暗示著俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰爭中吸取的軍事戰術，可能會被應用到台灣問題上。俄羅斯潛在的角色可能包括網絡攻擊、散布虛假信息，甚至是利用其在烏克蘭的經驗，在歐洲製造軍事騷亂。最近更有消息指出，駭客組織披露了一份令人震驚的防務合同，俄羅斯的 俄羅斯國防出口公司（Rosoboronexport）和中國的 中國電子科技集團國際公司（CETC International）簽署了一份「空降指揮自動化系統」的合同，這簡直是為大規模的兩棲登陸作戰量身定製的「神經中樞」。這套系統，如果真如我理解的那樣，將是管理數千架無人機和飛機實時協調的「大腦」，類似於現代版的「諾曼第登陸」。這表明，俄羅斯正在把在烏克蘭學到的經驗教訓，轉化為幫助中國進攻台灣的關鍵工具。即使沒有明確的長期計劃，專家們也認為，如果戰火在其他地方燃起，俄羅斯可能就會趁機行事。

What worries me most is the potential supporting role of Russia in this prospective conflict. Mark Rutte has issued a stark warning that should China invade Taiwan, Russia might be enlisted to “keep Europe busy,” undoubtedly escalating tensions on NATO’s eastern flank. The “no limits” partnership between these two nations has deepened in economic and defense cooperation, and some users on X have even revealed that 600 Chinese soldiers are training at Russian bases, suggesting that military tactics learned by Russia in the Ukraine war could be applied to the Taiwan issue. Russia’s potential role could involve cyberattacks, disinformation, or even military distractions in Europe, leveraging its experience in Ukraine. More recently, there’s news that a hacking group disclosed a shocking defense contract between Russia’s Rosoboronexport and China’s CETC International for an “Automation System for Air Landing Command,” which is essentially a “nerve center” tailored for large-scale airborne assaults across water. If I understand correctly, this system could serve as the “brain” for coordinating thousands of drones and aircraft in real-time, akin to a modern “D-Day” operation. This indicates that Russia is transforming lessons learned in Ukraine into key tools to assist China in attacking Taiwan. Even without an explicit long-term plan, experts believe that if conflict erupts elsewhere, Russia might opportunistically seize the moment.

面對這種嚴峻的局面，英國的表態讓我看到了一絲希望。我看到，英國國防大臣 約翰·希利（John Healey）表示，英國正準備與澳大利亞「共同戰鬥」，以阻止中國在台灣問題上的升級。雖然他強調英國更希望通過和平和外交途徑解決爭端，但他同時也說「我們通過實力維護和平，而我們的實力來自於盟友」。這可謂是英國政府在該地區潛在衝突問題上，迄今為止最為強硬的表態。英國的「威爾士親王號」航空母艦打擊群，攜帶著先進的 F-35 戰機，正在印太地區進行為期九個月的部署，將前往日本，並很可能途經台灣附近。這表明英國對該地區日益增長的威脅保持警覺，並與澳大利亞保持緊密聯繫。過去，英國對是否會干預該地區的任何衝突，一直採取與美國「戰略模糊」一致的立場，不予置評。但英國前國防大臣 加文·威廉姆森（Gavin Williamson）認為，坦誠的表態有助於威懾。英國外交大臣 大衛·拉米（David Lammy）也計劃在台灣海峽進行更多的「航行自由」行動。

In the face of this grave situation, Britain’s stance gives me a glimmer of hope. I see that UK Defence Secretary John Healey stated that Britain is preparing to “fight together” with Australia to deter Chinese escalation over Taiwan. Although he emphasized that Britain prefers peaceful and diplomatic resolutions to disputes, he also said that “we secure peace through strength, and our strength comes from our allies”. These are arguably the strongest words issued by the British government so far on the topic of potential engagement in any conflict in the region. The UK’s HMS Prince of Wales carrier group, equipped with advanced F-35 fighter jets, is on a nine-month deployment in the Indo-Pacific, heading to Japan and likely passing near Taiwan. This indicates that Britain is aware of the increasing threats in the region and maintains close ties with Australia. Previously, the UK had adopted a stance consistent with the US’s “strategic ambiguity,” declining to comment on whether it would intervene in any regional conflict. However, former Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson believes that being candid aids deterrence. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy also plans to undertake more “freedom of navigation” operations in the Taiwan Strait.

我個人覺得，台灣的命運，關乎著全球的和平與穩定。畢竟台灣生產了全球 60% 的半導體。如果台海發生衝突，每年高達 2.4 萬億英鎊（3.2 萬億美元）的貿易將受到影響。這不僅會讓全球經濟遭受「無法彌補的損失」，甚至可能導致商店關門、藥品短缺、通信網絡中斷以及國際航運路線受阻。有研究估計，中國入侵台灣可能導致美國經濟萎縮約 17%，東亞經濟體（包括中國）萎縮約 35%。如果再加上歐洲的衝突，全球經濟可能會迅速陷入「終極崩潰」。

I personally believe that Taiwan’s fate is crucial for global peace and stability. After all, Taiwan produces 60% of the world’s semiconductors. Should a conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, annual trade worth up to £2.4 trillion ($3.2 trillion) would be disrupted. This would not only cause “irrevocable damage” to the global economy but could also lead to shop closures, medicine shortages, communication network outages, and blockades of international shipping routes. Some studies estimate that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could result in the American economy contracting by about 17% and East Asian economies (including China’s) by about 35%. If a European conflict were to be added to this, the global economy could quickly descend into something approximating a “terminal dive”.

所以，我衷心希望，更多的民主國家能夠站出來，共同保衛台灣。北約 加強國防開支，並與日本和韓國建立夥伴關係，這都表明了捍衛決心。但單靠軍事力量還不夠，外交努力必須擺在首位，才能防止衝突升級。唯有團結一致的防禦策略，才能有效威懾潛在的危機。台灣的未來，牽動著全球的未來，保持警惕、堅定不移地維護和平，是我們每個人的責任。

Therefore, I sincerely hope that more democratic nations can step forward and collectively defend Taiwan. NATO’s bolstered defense spending and partnerships with Japan and South Korea signal a strong resolve. However, military strength alone is insufficient; diplomatic efforts must take center stage to prevent escalation. Only through unified defense strategies can potential crises be effectively deterred. Taiwan’s future is intertwined with the world’s future, and it is everyone’s responsibility to remain vigilant and unwavering in safeguarding peace.